1000 dentist deaths from COVID-19 can be prevented
Statistics from a dental perspective
by KEVIN KUO DDS, MMSc | June 29, 2020
As of June 29th, 2020, the United States is scrambling to control its COVID-19 outbreak while still being in the first wave. Florida, Texas, Arizona, and other southern and western states have been suffering from crushing new infections.
As calculated on the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center, there are approximately 2.5 million confirmed cases with 125,000 deaths in the U.S.
The CDC estimates that the number of infections is actually 10 times higher. In other words, there may be around 25 million infected persons in the U.S (7.6% of the total population) and a death rate of 0.5%.
Former FDA Director Dr. Scott Gottlieb predicts that almost half of the U.S. population will be infected with the virus by the end of the year. That is approximately 150 million Americans infected.
Let us put these numbers into perspective, more relatable in dentistry.
According to the American Dental Association, there are approximately 200,000 dentists in the U.S.
Extrapolating from the above COVID-19 statistics, dental mortality and morbidity rates could be the following by the end of 2020:
1,000 dentists deaths
100,000 infected dentists
Let us now compare the dentist population with the U.S. population.
Sources: 2015 ADA HPI and 2010 U.S. Census
Because a certain amount of education is needed to be a dentist, the average age of a dentist will be higher than the population of the United States for obvious reasons.
Since the virus is more detrimental to older age groups, 1,000 dentist deaths could be an underestimation.
The figure also assumes the risk of infection for dentists equals to the rest of the population.
These numbers look grim, but the U.S. still has time to turn its course.
The United States needs a stronger presence by the federal government.
Testing and contact tracing need to be better.
Many states need to not only pause re-opening but scale-back now.
Social distancing and mask-wearing is a must.
Let us think about those 1000 dentists going forward. The U.S. must do better.